Old methodology, tactical change .. What Russia wants from agreement with Qatar, Turkey?

Old methodology, tactical change .. What Russia wants from agreement with Qatar, Turkey?

Τι επιχειρούν με τη συμφωνία τους η Ρωσία, το Κατάρ και η Τουρκία;

Old methodology, tactical change .. What Russia wants from agreement with Qatar, Turkey?

Russia's announcement of an agreement with Turkey and Qatar on forming a new track on Syria raised many questions about the possibility of following this track in resolving instead of the Astana track, in addition to excluding Iran, so what is Russia seeking?

On March 11th, Russia's Lavrov, Qatari Muhammad bin Abdul Rahman Al Thani and Turkish Mevlut Cavusoglu announced the launch of a "New Consultative Process" between their countries regarding what they described as the Syrian settlement.

Qatar and Turkey intervened early in the Syrian crisis and were the reason for turning the Syrians' revolution into a crisis by supporting the MB groups, and opening the borders to the extremist groups from all over the world into Syria to topple the government, seize power, and form a dependent regime there.

The three ministers claimed, during a joint press conference, that the new process would concern humanitarian issues exclusively and be parallel to the "Astana Path".

The trio statement did not differ from that of the last round of the Astana track, as Lavrov said that he had agreed with his Turkish and Qatari counterparts to fight what he dubbed as "separatist attempts in Syria", referring to the Autonomous Administration of the North and East Syria.

'What prompted Russia to shape this path'

The "Doha track" followed a shuttle tour of Russian officials in the Arab region, after Moscow's failure to impose a political solution on the international community through dozens of rounds from the Astana and Sochi.

Russia has sought during the last period, through the Astana track, and the sharing of influence in Syria with Turkey and Iran since 2017, to replace the Geneva track in Astana, but that proved its failure.

The launch of the tripartite track came after the so-called Constitutional Committee that held several rounds in Geneva failed to make any progress, with Damascus' insistence on holding presidential elections in accordance with the 2012 constitution.

Launching a new path timed with the tenth anniversary of the Syrian crisis, and in light of the stifling economic crisis that hit the areas of the Damascus government due to tight international sanctions, especially with reports that talked about Russia’s failure during the previous days to persuade Gulf states to officially normalize relations with Damascus and work on its return to the Arab League, this is what Washington and Europe announced earlier rejected.

Has the Astana track ended?

The ministers affirmed that the new path is a parallel to Astana to preserve the interests of these countries that this track has achieved, with regard to establishing the fronts in Idlib by Turkish mercenaries and the Russian-backed Damascus forces, in addition to confirming Turkey's occupation of the areas through this the agreement.

Russia seeks through the Doha track to complete the Astana one, but in a new way it ends the obstacles, most notably the lack of Arab legitimacy in addition to the presence of Iran.

Why waw Iran put away?

Iran's absence from the Russian-Turkish agreements on Syria is not new, as it was absent from a number of Astana tours, and even at the time of its presence, the deals were between Russia and Turkey.

Its absence became more evident after talking about the Russian-American-Israeli rapprochement, the Jerusalem summit, and agreements on reducing the Iranian presence in Syria, as the air strikes on Iranian sites intensified amid Russian silence.

And after Russia's control of large areas by backing the Damascus government forces, Moscow did not achieve any political breakthrough, on the contrary, it increased economic and political sanctions, and saw Iran as an obstacle to its interests.

American and Western officials sent messages to Moscow, that there will be no political solution as long as Iran is present in Syria, but accepting the Russian forces in Syria.

This does not necessarily mean Russia’s abandonment of Iran, turning into opponents on the Syrian arena. Rather, this may be part of the Russian maneuvers and the exchange of roles with Iran to circumvent the agreements concluded by Moscow with the international powers and UN Resolution 2254.

What will Russia achieve?

Despite the Russian plans, there are expected problems in the future, and the famous saying "field accounts do not match the field accounts" can be dropped on Russian accounts with Qatar and Turkey.

As the balance of power in this new path, is against Russia's interests, due to the absence of Iran, an ally of Russia and the Damascus, in addition to the entry of Qatar, Turkey's ally and its mercenary groups.

'One methodology'

On the new track, the Egyptian political analyst and expert on Turkish affairs, Mohsen Awadallah, said: "This will not change the reality, since the new Doha track is not much different from the Astana and Sochi, the same methodology and the same participating countries except for changing Iran with Qatar."

'Russian attempt to flirt with Washington'

Regarding Iran's absence, Awadallah said: "This has a political dimension related to the changes that the American administration has witnessed and its rejection of Iran's participation in the Syrian solution. Consequently, Moscow sought to prove its control over the Syrian issue to exclude Iran, which is competing Moscow to control Damascus. Moscow is from that to flirting with Washington with the possibility of a dialogue on the Syrian issue, so that the new track will be part of the final solution.

Awadallah played down on that, saying: “I do not think that this track will have a future, and its fate will not differ from that of Astana and Sochi and what preceded them, since the last statement issued, does not differ much from the Astana, as well as that this statement contradicts reality on the ground. Where it talks about separatist plans and support for the state, and therefore it is a statement issued by Moscow and signed by Erdogan and Tamim. "

'The risk is not new'

Regarding the seriousness of this for Syria, Awadallah pointed out that "the risk will not be new. It is a statement within a Moscow's attempt to describe the Kurdish forces and the Autonomous Administration as separatist plans, and this is untrue and the American administration is well aware of this and knows that the Syrian Democratic Forces have no intention of secession."

Awadallah concluded his speech, saying: "The statement has no value and does not express the reality of the land. It is just a Russian attempt to tighten the grip on Damascus by excluding Iran, and flirt with Washington and send a message to Biden that we can participate in the final solution to the Syrian issue."

'Russian attempt to mobilize Gulf support'

In turn, the Syrian journalist and political analyst, Bahaa Al-Awam, said: "The Russian foreign minister's visit to Qatar was part of a Gulf tour that included the Emirates and Saudi Arabia as well, and the most prominent title for it in the Syrian crisis in particular is Moscow's attempt to create an Arab approach to this crisis."

He explained that the Russians are trying to mobilize Arab support in general and the Gulf in particular, to support the economic and humanitarian repercussions of the crisis in exchange for reduced conditions in the process of political change required of Bashar al-Assad in accordance with UN decisions.

He added, "I do not think that the Russians are reluctant to create new tracks to negotiate the humanitarian and economic conditions in Syria within the opposition or regime areas, as this dilutes the crisis and disperses international and regional efforts to address it politically."

'Nobody can replace Iran'

On the talk about replacing Iran with Qatar, the commoners said: “It should be noted that Moscow does not want and cannot replace Tehran with Doha, because Qatar only moves under the umbrella of Turkish influence and implements Ankara’s agenda, so it is not considered a major player like Iran in the Syrian file.”

He added: "Turkey wanted to attend the Russian-Qatari meeting to say that Doha is affiliated with Ankara in the Syrian crisis, and Qatar found in this an opportunity to show the meeting as a new platform on the crisis in which it would replace Iran, but in reality, the Qataris did not and will not anger Tehran, whether in Syria or elsewhere," Moscow and Ankara will not be able to remove Iran except by replacing it with America or with a unified Arab position. Either the crisis is managed by the triad of Russia, America and Turkey, or by the triad of Russia, America and the Arab League, and the third option is a clear US-Russian agreement that is imposed on all internal and external parties.

'Washington has the final say'

The public evaluated the seriousness of these moves, saying: "In all cases, the assessment of the danger or benefit of the recent Russian moves on the future of the Syrian crisis is read through the American reaction to it, as the United States has the final say in the end. Any efforts ignore Washington's role in the Middle East," Or it thinks itself is able to circumvent it, it will never succeed, and it will never exceed the limits of media propaganda for countries and individuals who are making or exploiting it. "