Armenia faces a humanitarian challenge as thousands are displaced from Nagorno-Karabakh, whilst Azerbaijan’s legislative body discusses plans that critics argue could alter the ethnic makeup of both Nagorno-Karabakh and Armenia itself.

Nagorno-Karabakh: Armenia confronts mass displacement as Azerbaijan eyes demographic shift

Armenia is currently dealing with the influx of nearly 3,000 individuals from Nagorno-Karabakh, a number expected to rise significantly. Prime Minister Nikol Pashinian has indicated that Armenia is prepared to accommodate over 40,000 displaced persons, emphasising that the issue extends beyond mere shelter to include food, healthcare, and other essentials.

Meanwhile, Azerbaijan’s National Assembly is holding public hearings on “returning to Western Azerbaijan”, a term that critics argue is a thinly veiled attempt to change the demographics not only of Nagorno-Karabakh but also of Armenia proper. The hearings will discuss the legal aspects of the mass displacement of Azerbaijanis from what they refer to as their ancestral lands in present-day Armenia.

 

David Babayan, advisor to Karabağ leader Samvel Şahramanyan, revealed that 99.9% of Karabağ Armenians prefer to leave their historical lands rather than live as part of Azerbaijan. The timing for the passage of 120,000 Karabağ Armenians through the Laçin corridor remains uncertain.

The situation is further complicated by Russia’s increasingly passive role. “Russia, which has peacekeeping forces in the region, has been increasingly distancing itself from Armenia,” explained Yetvart Danzikyan, an Armenian journalist writing for Agos, a weekly newspaper published in Turkey. He also highlights that the balance of power has shifted against Armenia, especially after the recent ceasefire. “Karabakh Armenians have been living under extremely difficult conditions due to Azerbaijan’s nine-month blockade of the Lachin Corridor,” he stated. According to Danzikyan, this has left Armenia in a vulnerable position, struggling to cope with the humanitarian crisis and the looming threat of demographic changes.

Meanwhile, preparations are underway for a meeting between Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan and Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev, scheduled for 5 October in Granada, Spain. The meeting is set to take place on the sidelines of the European Political Community summit in the same city.